- Aug 22, 2017 -
In the first half of the year, China's chemical market prices finished lower. According to the business data, the chemical high index appeared on February 15, is 895, after all the way down to May 12, arrived in the first half of the lowest point 816 points after the decline slowed down, shock continued. In the first half of the chemical market price trend relative to another class, a change in the practice.
Specifically, the beginning of the year by the price of crude oil support, olefins, aromatics prices relatively gratifying. But the price is not long, starting from March, organic chemical products prices lost crude oil prices, continued to fall sharply, ethylene prices fell by 20.5%, propylene prices fell by 12.39%. In April, the aromatics market rebounded, while the olefins remained weak consolidation trend, the overall view did not change the chemical sector weakness trend. Aromatics, olefins "you rose me down" and "common advance and retreat" are subject to the trend of crude oil prices and the international situation, and then in the chemical sector out of a "parabola."
International crude oil prices fell, after chain transmission, the price of organic chemical products play a supporting role, but also to promote the chemical index in the first half reached its peak. In the 115 chemical products, the correlation coefficient of organic chemical products such as styrene, butadiene, benzene and OX is higher than that of crude oil. Among them, the weight products such as olefins and aromatics are incompetent. Crude oil prices fell, chemical products are weak to follow.
Refrigerant R22 by the temperature continued to rise, supply and demand tight. At the same time, affected by environmental supervision, part of the hydrofluoric acid enterprises shut down, the first half of the inorganic fluorine chemical industry strong performance.
Environmental policy is increasingly tight in terms of chemical products can be described as "double-edged sword." On the one hand, the impact of limited production will promote some product prices, such as coking coal coke, fluorine chemical products, but also lead to lower raw materials procurement of chemical raw materials, resulting in poor downstream chemical raw materials, downstream boosted by the high prices. On the other hand, from the overall effect, the non-standard enterprises to take parking to rectify the chemical industry is to ensure long-term healthy development of the necessary means.
3 to 5 months has always been for the chemical industry inspection season, mainly concentrated in the fluorine chemical plate. Affected by the short-term supply and demand imbalance in the chemical market, some product prices, such as liquid chlorine, R22, propylene oxide, hydrofluoric acid, refrigerant, fluorite, ethylene glycol, propylene, acetic acid, caprolactam and other products Have a different degree of rise.
Consolidated in the first half of the chemical market performance, business analyst Guo Shuai said that the first half of 2017 chemical index highest point 895 hit a new high in five years, through five years of chemical index was damping vibration graphics. Since the beginning of 2016 began to rebound to February 2017, chemical index trend is good, but still did not break the previous high point, indicating that the rise is limited, the resistance is greater. Whether the national policy level supply side of the reform, or the tightening of environmental policy, the integration of the chemical industry have played a decisive role.
In the second half of the year, the dominant factor in crude oil is still the most important, by the US shale oil technology is increasingly mature and combustible ice large-scale excavation, crude oil prices or further dropping. Affected by this, the price of chemical products is still declining, but by the traditional sense of the "golden nine silver ten" seasonal effects, or a slight correction, but the intensity will not be great.